Population Size And Growth Economics Essay Elham Abdoul Malik Abdoul Rahman Nada Abdel Ghany Awaga Heba Ahmad Shafiq Nesma Ali Saleh Under Supervision of D. Hassan Zaki 1. Overview Sweden, officially the Kingdom of Sweden, is an Independent European country that emerged in the middle ages. It is located in Northern Europe, where it is bordered by Norway and Finland. Stockholm is the capital and largest city of Sweden. Sweden is ranked as the third largest country by area in the European Union and Western Europe with 450295 square kilometers. Its official language is Swedish and it adapts a constitutional monarchy parliamentary democracy political system where its’ parliament is called The Riksdag. The currency is the Swedish krona. Politically, Sweden has always maintained the neutral role in wars and disputes. This was so obvious during World War I and II. Fortunate enough, Sweden took the advantage of such neutrality which had forced a well industrial base and social stability, which were used along with its natural resources to improve its economy and industry through the rebuilding of Europe after world war. This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order In 1995, due to newly adapted economical policies to overcome the economical crisis it faced at the beginning 1992, Sweden joined the European Union and in 2007 it signed the Lisbon treaty. Sweden has a total population of about 9.5 million individuals. Sweden has a low population density of 21 inhabitants per square kilometer. It is a highly developed country and is among the top ten countries of the highest per capita income. It is well ranked among the world countries through the international and non-governmental organization. It is the top country at gender equality. According to the democracy index of the Economist, it was ranked the fourth in 2011 but based on the human development index of the united nation; it is ranked as the tenth. Also, based on the UN indices, Sweden is the most equal country in terms of income distribution. Industrial wise, it is ranked by the World Economic Reform as the second competitive country worldwide after Switzerland. 2. Demographics of Sweden This section discusses the demographics of Sweden and their development over time. By demographics of Sweden we mean the demographic features of the population of Sweden, including population size, growth and age/gender structure, health care, educational level, marital status, ethnicity, religious affiliations and language. In the following subsections, we will throw light on the historical development of these factors in Sweden. 2.1 Population Size and Growth Sweden is one of the countries that have kept population records for a very long time. According to Statistics Sweden (2012), the first census of Sweden was taken in the middle of the 18th century, and showed the population of Sweden, excluding Finland, to be 1.8 million. Since then the population of Sweden has increased steadily. In 1800 the population had reached 2.3 million, and by 1900 it had more than doubled at 5.1 million. According to the latest census executed in 2011, the population increased to nearly 9.5 million. For the next 50 years, 2012-2060, Statistics Sweden (2012) presented a forecast of the population changes over this period. This forecast was based on the following assumptions: Fertility: a total fertility rate of level 1.90 children per woman is assumed to apply in the long-term. Mortality: mortality will continue to decrease in the long-term mainly due to reduced smoking and medical developments. Migration: it is assumed that immigration will be greater than emigration during the entire forecast period largely due to increased immigration of refugees and family members Before presenting the historical development of population over time, we will investigate the changes in the different factors responsible for the annual population increase. These factors are birth surplus and net migration. 2.1.1 Birth Surplus Birth surplus, also called net natural increase, is the difference between the number of births and deaths. According to Statistics Sweden (2012), that fertility in Sweden has fluctuations over time. It is illustrated in Figure 2.1. This is because there has been a long standing connection between childbearing and the business cycle. The largest increase in births that Sweden ever witnessed was during the 1940s, after the end of World War II. This increase produced the generation known as the baby boom which led to increasing the labor supply growth during the 1960’s and 1970’s. The increase in births was followed by a decrease from the latter 1960s up until the middle of the 1980s since women preferred to postpone childbearing during this period. The reasons for that are the difficulty that women face in combining parenthood with working life besides the access to better and safer birth control methods. This down turn in births was replaced by a baby boom around 1990. This was partly due to a strong economy, but also because of the snabbhetspremien where many chose to have their children at a quicker rate than usual. The downturn of the 1990s is explained by the downturn in the economy when particularly younger women and men had problems in establishing themselves on the labor market. An increasing number went on to higher education and postponed having children. The number of births is expected to increase during the next few years and will reach a peak around 2020. This is when persons born during the 1990s are in childbearing ages. Also another increase is expected around 2050 because persons expected to be born around 2020 will be in childbearing. This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order According to the relation between births and deaths, the number of births has exceeded the number of deaths for most of the years. This results in a positive birth surplus over time. According to Sweden Statistics (2012), the number of deaths has been around 90 000 in recent years and this number is expected to remain in the next coming years. At the beginning of the 2020s the number of deaths is expected to increase due to the death of the large numbers of people born in the 1940s. Figure (2.2): Births and deaths 1960-2011 and forecast 2012-2060 (Source: Sweden Statistics (2012)) 2.1.2 Net Migration Net migration is defined by the difference between the immigrants and emigrants. Migration to and from Sweden depends on conditions within the country as well as conditions outside of the country. As illustrated by Figure 2.2, Sweden has had an immigration surplus since the end of the 1930s and onwards. This is a result from the economic development witnessed in Sweden since 1930 and accelerated after the World War II. Also a positive immigration surplus can be justified by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan together with the unrest in Africa, the expansion of the EU, temporary changes in asylum laws, increased numbers of foreign students, new laws that facilitate labor force immigration and the economic crisis in the EU. In the forecast, Sweden will continue to have immigration surplus but the magnitude of it will decrease over time. This can be due to the unemployment among young people in Sweden combined with higher salaries in neighboring Nordic countries. Figure (2.2): Immigration and emigration 1970-2011 and forecast 2012-2060 (Source: Sweden Statistics (2012)) Now we can forecast the trends of population growth over time. Since the Swedish population will have positive birth surplus and also positive net migration, it is concluded that the Swedish population will continue to grow in the future. This is obvious from Figure 2.3. According to Sweden Statistics (2012), the population is expected to surpass the ten million by 2018. While it is expected to reach 11 million in the beginning of the 2040s.By the end of the forecast period in 2060, the population is expected to be 11.6 million persons. Figure (2.3): Population 1750-2011 and forecast 2012-2060 (Source: Sweden Statistics (2012)) 2.2 Age/Sex Structure The age/sex structure means the distribution of the men and women on the different age categories. As recorded by Sweden Statistics (2012) there will changes in the age/sex structure of the population of Sweden over time. The largest change in the age/sex structure change is that the population will have another age composition. 2.2.1 Age Structure (Age Composition) Figure 2.4 shows the development of the number and percentage of persons in age groups 0–19, 20–64 and 65 and older. From this Figure, we can observe the following The elderly part of the population has increased in both number and percentage. In 2011, one fifth ( 19 percent) of the population was of age 65 or older which means that from among every five persons there is one person aged 65 or more. This percentage is expected to increase to one fourth (25 percent) at the end of the forecast period. This increase in the percentage of old people can be explained by the development in the health care services offered by the country which led to high life expectancy in Sweden. Life expectancy in Sweden has increased by about 35 years during the period 1861–2011, from 49 to nearly 84 years for women and from 45 to nearly 80 years for men, as shown in Figure 3.5. The life expectancy for women in the forecast is predicted to rise from nearly 84 years in 2011 to close to 89 years in 2060. Men’s lives are expected to increase from nearly 80 to roughly 87 years during the same period In 2011 children and young people aged 0–19 comprised about one fourth (23 percent) of the population. This proportion is expected to remain at around the same level even in the future. Even though the number of people in the actively working population (aged 20–64) will increase somewhat, the proportion of these people in the population will decrease somewhat. This is because the number of older people has increased more than the number of people aged 20–64. In 2011 these persons accounted for 58 percent of the population. This figure is estimated to drop to about half (52 percent) of the population in 2060. This change in the age structure will have reflections on the economic status in Sweden since it will increase the demographic dependency ratio. This ratio measures the relationship between the number of people in the most actively working ages of 20–64, and the total of the population that lies outside of this age interval. The age structure change will lead to an increase in the dependency ratio from 0.71 in 2011 to 0.92 in 2060 which means that for every person aged 20–64 there will be 0.92 younger and older persons in 2060. This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order Figure (2.4): Population in ages 0-19, 20-64 and 65 years and older 1960-2011 and forecast 2012-2060 (Source: Statistics Sweden (2012)) Figure 2.5: Expectance of life at birth(Source: Statistics Sweden (2012)) 2.3.2 Sex Structure (Sex Composition) Table 2.1 clarifies the sex distribution in the main age categories in 1960, 2011, 2030, and 2030 among Swedish porn and foreign born persons. Historically, it is clear that the sex distribution was slightly in favor of women than men. According to the forecast the case will be reversed. This change is expected to occur starting in 2017. By the end of the forecast period it is estimated that there will be slightly more than 120 000 more men than women. Concerning the sex distribution among the different age categories, 49 percent women and 51 percent men, will mostly remain for the age groups, 0-19 and 20–64 years but among older ages, surplus of women is observed. However, this surplus of women in these ages has decreased and will continue to decrease because the mortality of men is decreasing somewhat faster than that of women. The sex distribution among Swedish born persons is similar to that of the total population. However this distribution differs among foreign born persons since the sex distribution among older people has been more skewed than in the population as a whole. This is explained by the higher re-emigration rate among men than women who prefers to stay in Sweden. Table (2.1): Sex Distribution in ages 0-19, 20-64 and 65 and older 1960 and 2011 and forecast 2030 and 2060 (Source: Statistics Sweden (2012)) 2.3.3 Population Pyramid A population pyramid is a graphical representation of the age/sex structure of the population at a certain time point and may provide insights about political and social stability, as well as economic development. The population is distributed along the horizontal axis, with males shown on the left and females on the right. The male and female populations are broken down into 5-year age groups represented as horizontal bars along the vertical axis, with the youngest age groups at the bottom and the oldest at the top. The shape of the population pyramid gradually evolves over time based on fertility, mortality, and international migration trends. According to the development in the age/sex structure of the Swedish population over time, previously discussed, the population pyramids of 1960, 2011, 2030 and 2060 were obtained by Sweden Statistics (2012) and illustrated in Figure 3.6. From this figure it is clear that the share of foreign born persons has increased. It was about 4 percent of the population in 1960 but this proportion increased to about 15 percent in 2011. According to the forecast, the proportion of foreign born persons is expected to increase somewhat in the next few years, but will then stabilize at a level around 18 percent. This is illustrated in Figure 3.7 Figure (2.6): Population Pyramids 1960, 2011, 2030 and 2060 (Source: Sweden Statistic (2012)) Figure 2.7: Share of foreign born 1960-2011 and forecast 2012-2060 (Source: Sweden Statistic (2012)) 3.3 Health Care The health system passed through many stages to reach its high quality from 1946 till now. The health care in Sweden provides the same level of services to all legal citizens. Nowadays, the Swedish government is faced by a challenge to increase the recourses of the health services since the population consists of large percent of elderly and retirees who require numerous health care resources as home care services and institutional care services. The expenditure on health services costs about 9.1 percent of the GPD. The government is responsible for 98 percent of the cost while the citizen pays a little fraction. The government also responsible for enact laws and establish principles and guidelines for health and medical care. 2.4 Educational Level and Marital Status Sweden is one of the countries that are characterized by high percentage of literate citizens. By Literacy percentage, we mean the percentage of the population of age 15 and over and can read and write. In 2003, this percentage was 99%, according to Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) world fact book. This due to the carefulness of the Swedish government by education where the total expenditure for the educational systemin Sweden amounted to SEK 251 billion in 2007, which is equal to 8.2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measured in current prices, according to Sweden Statistics (2009). According to Sweden Statistics (2009), over 90 percent of all people in Sweden attend school up to the age of 19. Over 40 percent of these people also continue to study some form of higher education, either directly or a few years after leaving school. The most common level of education is the upper secondary since roughly half of Sweden’s inhabitants aged 25–64 have an upper secondary education as their highest education, according to Sweden Statistics (2009). This report also showed that more than one fifth (22 percent) of the population aged 25–64 has at least a three year post-secondary education, while 15 percent has only compulsory education. The opposite was the case earlier. At the beginning of the 1990s one third of the population had no more than compulsory education while only a tenth had longer postsecondary education. The level of education of the Swedish population has therefore risen significantly in recent years. Figure 2.8 and Figure 2.9 illustrate the change in the educational level of men and women over the time interval of (1991-2011). These Figures clarify the tendency between men and women to have higher educational level in the future. This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order Figure (2.8): Educational level at ages 15-74 for women (Source: Sweden Statistic (2012)) Figure (2.9): Educational level at ages 15-74 for women (Source: Sweden Statistic (2012)) Concerning the changes in the tendency to get married over time, Figure 2.10 shows that the number of marriages increased over the period (1749-1960) and the largest increase was witnessed during 1940s. This observable increase in the number of marriages resulted in the baby boom generation of 1940s. Then the number of marriages started to decrease at the latter of 1960s due to the economic conditions reveals at that time. Figure(2.10): Marriage by period (Source: Sweden Statistic) 2.5 Ethnicity, Religion Affiliations, and Language The majority of the people living in Sweden are ethnic Swedes. This ethnicity is similar to other Scandinavian ethnicities (Norwegian and Danish) and is a further descendent of Germanic tribes. In addition to the ethnic Swedish majority, Sweden has historically had smaller minorities of Sami and Finnish people. The Sami are a Nordic group of people that are distance relatives of the Uralic ethnicities from Central Asia. Although there is no official religion in Sweden, the majority of Sweden’s population is Lutheran, about 87 percent according to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) world fact book. And although the Church of Sweden is Lutheran, there is a strict separation of church and state, guaranteeing freedom of religion to people of all faiths and beliefs. Other religions, which include Roman Catholic, Orthodox, Baptist, Muslim, Jewish, and Buddhist, are also practiced in much smaller numbers. The percentage of the Swedish population believing in these religions is 13 percent. The only official language of Sweden is Swedish, although Sami and Finnish are spoken among many of the ethnic minorities of the same name. 3 Economical Characteristics This section is divided into six main parts. The first part represents historical review about Sweden economical characteristic starting from early ages and through the First and Second World War. The Swedish model is represented in this section explaining its main points. Section two figures the main economy sectors in Sweden. Taxes system is the main core of the third section followed by labor force in the fourth section. Stages of development in Sweden economy showing the trends of GPA and inflation is represented in the fifth section. 3.1 Historical Review 3.1.1 Early Ages Economy As stated by Heckscher (1968), Crafts and Toniolo (1945) and Scott (1988) there are three characteristics of the Swedish economy in the middle ages. The first is the insignificance of foreign trade the second the somewhat weaker self-sufficiency of households and the third the overshadowing importance of agriculture. Hence in a country which does not carry on an extensive foreign trade in foodstuffs, a rough indication of the total satisfaction of needs may be derived from the relative importance of agriculture. Thus the large majority of the Swedish people in the middle ages had to be primarily farmers and that at the same time they could not possibly be merely farmers. The nature of Swedish agriculture and the living and working conditions of the agriculture population remained largely unchanged not only through the eighteenth century but well into the nineteenth. Approximately 80 percent of the population was engaged in the agriculture sector. Signs of a take-off in economic growth emerged in the 19850s when the railroads were built and allowed access to the enormous assets of forests, iron ore and hydropower in northern Sweden. So in the early 1870s industrialization based on raw materials notably iron ore and lumber provided a base for sustained economic growth. Sweden first manufacturing sector was based on paper manufacture to make use of their most important resource which is forests and by 1950 the total of paper products accounted for 9 percent of Swedish exports. Sweden second major manufacturing sector was based on iron ore. Iron had been found and worked in Sweden for centuries taken from bogs before it was discovered in mines. Sweden sold its iron to many countries but particularly to the Netherlands, then to England. During most of the eighteenth century more than half of Swedish exports of bar iron went to England. However, when the English developed the puddling process in the 1780’s they surpassed the Swedes in iron production. This and Russian iron threatened Swedish exports. Each country had to use for fuel what it had. The English were forced to use coal and coke, the Swedes to use charcoal. Charcoal produced a finer product but a more expensive one and the Swedes had to learn to make the most of their quality iron and steel. This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order 3.1.2 First and Second World War Sweden did not participate in neither the First nor the Second World War. Therefore, Sweden was in a good position to participate in the rebuilding of Europe that was damaged after the war. The first half of the 20th century had political problems, high inflation, unemployment and economic recovering. But this was also the era when a new trademark for the Swedish economy was introduced, the Swedish model. Sweden could take advantage of the increase in foreign demand caused by the First World War. After the war the economy grew fast but it was not based on new and better production methods. Instead it depended on pure speculation. The shortage of different necessary goods such as fuel and shortage of labor made the inflation rise dramatically. The end of the war led to drastic changes for the Swedish economy. With the removal the trade barriers caused by the war, goods could be traded more freely as the case before the war. This meant that shortages were turned into surpluses which led to a rapid downturn in prices and consequently decrease in firms’ profits. A large number of companies went into liquidation, the overall production fell 25 percent and unemployment rose to approximately 30 percent. The economic crisis of 1921-22 became the toughest challenge for the Swedish industry so far and it took several years before the economy started to grow again. The Great Depression started in the US in October 1929 and struck the Swedish economy in 1930-31. In 1932 the unemployment increased to about 25 percent and the Swedish exports fell drastically due to the belief that protectionism and currency regulation would be the medicine to overcome the problems. Sweden came out of the depression slightly better than countries such as Germany and the US. This was partly a result of an export-boosting 30 percent devaluation of the Swedish krona against the dollar in 1931. The export oriented forestry and mining industries took full advantage of this and grew rapidly. Furthermore, since the crisis in the 1920s, the Swedish industrial sector had developed new production and distribution methods. As a result of these technical improvements production increased rapidly and so did the quality of manufactured goods. Among the most successful industrial products of this time were textiles, pulp and steel. (7) 3.1.3 The Swedish model The year of 1932 was a breaking point for in Swedish economic and political history. The new political ministry had the aim of taking greater social responsibility. Fighting and controlling unemployment became the first priority. From that time the government decided to keep the economy and its business cycle swings under its control. The first step towards “the Swedish model” had been taken. The rebuilding of war-torn Europe favored Swedish industry, since it had an intact labor force and undamaged production facilities as it was not part of this war. Accordingly, the Second World War was followed by an economic boom in Sweden. So Sweden, having managed once again to stay out of the war, had a better starting position than most of its competitors. As a result at the end of the decade, Sweden even saw some growth of the national economy in a time of world-wide economic stagnation. During the great wars and the inter-war period Sweden took a substantial step from being a poor country to becoming one of the world’s wealthiest The main feature of the “Swedish model” was the historical compromise between a social democratic ruled state and a widespread privately owned industrial sector. The “Swedish model “can be summarized as a large privately owned industrial sector a large public sector financed by taxes a large trade union movement the state playing an active role in labour market policies ambitions to achieve an even distribution of income and wealth So,the Swedish Model had basically two components. One was a greater public responsibility for social security and for the creation and preservation of human capital. This led to an increase in the supply of public services in the fields of education, health and children’s care and increase in social security programs and in public savings for transfers to pensioners program. The consequence was high taxation to fulfill these objectives. The other component was a regulation of labor and capital markets. This was the most ingenious part of the model, constructed to sustain growth in the industrial society and to increase equality in combination with the social security program and taxation. This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order Economy Main Sectors Natural resources Sweden is rich in its natural resources. As stated by Scott (1988) “Sweden was endowed with fertile plains in skane, with water power in magnificent falls in the north, with boundless dark green forests and with a wealth of minerals underground”. The challenge to the people was to learn how to make the best use of these gifts of nature. Most important natural resources are: Forests, hydroelectric power, iron ore, copper, lead, zinc, gold, silver, tungsten, uranium, arsenic, feldspar, timber. Agriculture Although as stated previously Sweden Economy depended on agriculture in the early years but nowadays less than 3 percent of Sweden’s labor force works in agriculture and less than 10 percent of the country’s area consists of farmland. The largest agricultural acreage and the highest productivity are found in southernmost Sweden and in the plains of central Sweden, that are specialized in production of grain and pork. In Norrland, the production of fodder crops, meat and milk predominates. Farming takes place as far north as the border with Finland, where an intensive summer season and fertile river sediments provide good conditions for growing vegetables. Despite the reduction in the number of farms and crop acreage, the agricultural revolution introduced large scale and technically advanced methods of cultivating the land. These rationalizations meant that productivity rose in the sector and that the labor force made redundant due to the use of techonology. This labor force could move to work in the early industries. Sweden is self-sufficient in agriculture except for few products. Sweden’s membership in the European Union since 1995 has led to increase in the two-way with other EU countries in agricultural products and foodstuffs. Fishing Nowadays fishing became a small sector of the national economy. This is due of redrawing fishing zones according to international agreements. Accordingly Sweden has lost some of its traditional fishing areas in the North Sea. The emphasis in fishing has shifted to the Baltic Sea. Industry The biggest change in the Swedish industrial development occurred in conjunction with two separate industrial revolutions. The first industrial revolution, which began about 1850was based on the old agrarian sector. At that time, Sweden had 3.5 million inhabitants and approximately 80 percent were engaged in the agricultural sector. Only 10 percent of the population lived in the cities. Therefore, industries were established primarily on the countryside for labor purposes. Although Sweden was, industrially speaking, something of a slow development, the country entered the scene at a favorable moment. The manufacturing sector, where steam was the main source of power, produced goods for export such as steel and iron and timber products. The economic development in Europe raised international demand and paved the way for Swedish products. Trade The free trade movement that spread through Europe during the second half of the 19th century led to the success of Swedish international trade. This enabled Sweden to ship products and goods such as iron ore, copper and timber products to Britain and to the rest of the European countries.The second industrial revolution started around 1890 and was the reason for Swedish economic development. The electric and combustion engines replaced the steam engine as power source in the industrial production process. The industrialization became more focused to the cities. The industrial production for the domestic market, such as clothes and shoe manufacturers, grew larger due to the overall income increase. This was also the time when new and more knowledge-based industries, such as engineering and the pulp industry, became the most important export industry. Services More than one-third of actively employed Swedes work in the service sector. Moreover, in the early 21st century, the export of services—including business services and technology consultancy services—was significantly greater than the export of goods. The tourist industry also plays an important role in the Swedish economy. 3.3 Labor Force Due to the different stages and crisis that Sweden passed by, the employment rate changed over time rapidly in Sweden. The Swedish labour market saw a major change in the 1960s. While the number of people employed in the service sector increased, there was a drop in the number of industrial workers, especially in the textile and leather sectors. The social welfare systems expanded and the number of people employed in the public sector increased considerably during the 60s and 70s. This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order As Magnusson (2007) mentioned, since the Second World War Sweden has been recognized for its commitment to a policy of full employment. When recession hit the Swedish economy in the early 1990s the unemployment rate rose dramatically and accordingly incomes and wages became less evenly distributed. This economic downturn was probably the biggest since the 1920s and led to severe problems on the labor market. With unemployment rate around 10 to 12 percent the old labor market policy no longer operated efficiently. In brief, the problem was that there was no supply of jobs and therefore matching activities became increasingly costly at the same time as they were ineffective. Some of the effects of mass unemployment visible in Europe during the 1970s and 80s were also felt in Sweden. Different Swedish governments have not simply accepted unemployment as a consequence of monetary instability and lower growth (stagflation) and structural change. Instead, especially during the1970s and 80s, Swedish economic policies devaluated the Swedish currency (krona) as a way of sustaining a policy of full employment. This policy was quite successful in the short run – but undoubtedly had a price. Many have argued that it led to an overheated economy in the 1980s with high inflation, macro economic instability and not “full” but rather “over-full” employment characterized by a shortage of labor. Nowadays, the overall goal for the labor market policy is to contribute to a well functioning labor market. The Swedish Government labor market policy depends on three main objects as stated by Nordfeldt and Larsson (2010) To stimulate the labor supply by securing that the unemployment insurance is a reconversion insurance, i.e. that the levels of compensation make it profitable to work. Stimulate labor demand by interventions that reduces employers cost to employ a person that has difficulties to get a job and who has a marginal position in relation to the labor market. To match job seekers and vacancies. Table (3.1): Employment rate 2005 and 2010 2005 2010 Total 65.4 64.7 Men 67.9 67.6 Women 62.6 61.8 Ages 15-24 38.5 38.5 25-54 83.9 85.0 55-74 46.3 45.1 Born in Sweden Total 66.8 66.7 Men 69.2 69.0 Women 64.4 64.2 Born outside of Sweden Total 55.9 55.2 Men 59.5 60.3 Women 52.6 50.5 (Source: Statistics Sweden) Table (3.2): Unemployment rates 2005 and 2010 2005 2010 Total 7.8 8.4 Men 7.8 8.5 Women 7.7 8.2 Ages 15-24 22.8 25.2 25-54 6.2 6.1 55-74 4.2 5 Born in Sweden Total 6.8 7.0 Men 6.8 7.2 Women 6.8 6.7 Born outside of Sweden Total 14.1 16.0 Men 14.8 15.6 Women 13.5 16.5 Table (3.3): Part time employment and temporary work rates 2010 Part-time employment Temporary work rates Total 23.4 15.8 Men 13.2 14.0 Women 34.7 17.6 Ages 15-24 57.1 25-34 19.1 35-44 8.2 45-54 6.3 55-64 5.5 65-74 46.7 Table (3.4): Unemployment and persons participating in programs with activity support percent of population: Total 16-64 unemployed Total 16-64 in programs Young persons 18-24 unemployed Young persons 18-24 in programs 2010 3.9 3.0 4.8 6.2 2005 4.2 1.7 6.2 2.6 2000 4.1 1.6 4.4 2.5 (Source: Statistics from the employment office: http://www.arbetsformedlingen.se/Omoss/ Statistik-prognoser/Tidigare-statistik.html) From these tables we can conclude: The employment rate in Sweden was 64.7 percent in 2010. For men it was 67.1 and for women 61.8. These figures were somewhat lower compared to the figures from 2005, and consequently the unemployment rates are a little higher. In 2010 the unemployment rate was 8.4 percent; 8.5 percent for men and 8.2 percent for women. For persons that were born outside of Sweden the employment rate were lower that for native Swedes; 55.2 compared to 66.7 percent. And, unemployment rate is higher; 16.0 percent, compared to 7.0 percent. The largest difference in employment rate is between women born in Sweden (64.2 percent) and women born outside of Sweden (50.5 percent). Rates on employment and unemployment do not differ a lot between men and women in Sweden. But, when it comes to part time employment there are considerable gender differences. Almost quarter of the female work force work part time. When it comes to temporary work rates, women possess temporary work to a slightly higher degree than men. The striking differences are between ages; young people are to a high degree employed by temporary work contracts, to a lesser degree the young adults but still to a much higher rate than middle aged people. 3.4 Taxes: The flip side to the government’s ambitious social welfare and redistribution policy was the very heavy tax burden. Even today Sweden has the highest taxes in the world, with a tax burden equivalent to 50 percent of GDP. Sweden is a nation with extraordinary high tax rates. The worker not only pays 30 percent of her or his income in visible taxes, but, additionally, near 30 percent in hidden taxes. The defenders of the punishing tax burden argue that it is needed to maintain Sweden’s generous welfare system. This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order 3.5 The Stages of Development The Stages of development in Sweden Economical Situation as explained previously through time can be illustrated in the following tables and figures: Figure (3.1): Swedish GDP per Capita in Relation to World GDP per Capita, 1870-2004 (Nine year moving averages) Swedish GDP per Capita in Relation to World GDP per Capita, 1870-2004 Sources: Maddison (2006) Table (3.5): Growth Rates of Industrial Sectors, 1800-2000 Period Agriculture Industrial and Hand Transport and Communic. Building Private Services Public Services GDP 1800-1840 1.5 0.3 1.1 -0.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1840-1870 2.1 3.7 1.8 2.4 2.7 0.8 2.3 1870-1910 1.0 5.0 3.9 1.3 2.7 1.0 2.3 1910-1950 0.0 3.5 4.9 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.7 1950-1975 0.4 5.1 4.4 3.8 4.3 4.0 4.3 1975-2000 -0.4 1.9 2.6 -0.8 2.2 0.2 1.8 1800-2000 0.9 3.8 3.7 1.8 2.7 1.7 2.6 Source: Krantz/Schön (forthcoming 2007). Table (3.6): Most Recent Economical Records: GDP (2011 est.) $536 billion GDP (2011 est., purchasing power parity) $384.7 billion Annual GDP growth rate (2011 estimate) 4%. Exchange rate (February 2012) Swedish kronor (SEK) per U.S. dollar = 6.7 Exchange rate (2011 avg.) Swedish kronor (SEK) per U.S. dollar = 6.75 Inflation rate (January 2012 est.) 1.9%. Budget(2011 est.) Revenue:$276.8 billion Expenditure:$276.2 billion Agriculture, forestry, and fishing (2010): Approximately 1.7% of GDP. Products–dairy products, meat, grains (barley, wheat), sugar beets, potatoes, wood. Arable land–9 million acres. Industry (2010): Approximately 26.1% of GDP. Types–machinery/metal products (iron and steel), electrical equipment, aircraft, paper products, precision equipment (bearings, radio and telephone parts, armaments), wood pulp and paper products, processed foods. Services (2010): Approximately 72.2% of GDP. Types–telecommunications, computer equipment, biotech. Trade: Exports (2010) SEK 728.2 billion (U.S. $102.9 billion) Types machinery and transport equipment, 44.1% chemical and rubber products, 13.4%; food, clothing, textiles, and furniture, 12%; wood and paper products, 11.7%; minerals, 10.7%; Mineral fuels and electric current, 8.1%. Major trading partners, exports (2010) Germany 10.1%, Norway 9.9%, U.K. 7.6%, U.S. 7.3%, Denmark 6.5%, Finland 6.2%, France 5.1%, Netherlands 4.7%, Belgium 3.9%, China 3.1%. Imports (2010) SEK 687.6 billion (U.S. $97.2 billion). Types machinery and transport equipment, 41.8% Food clothing, textiles and furniture 19.6%; mineral fuels and electric current13.5%; chemicals and rubber products12.8%; minerals, 9.2%; Wood and paper products3.1%. Major trading partners, imports (2010) Germany 18.3%, Norway 8.7%, Denmark 8.5% Netherlands 6.4%, U.K. 5.7%, Finland 5.2%, Russia 4.9%, France 4.8%, Belgium 3.9%, China 3.9% Economical Facts over time( 8) Figure (3.2): GDP (purchasing power parity) (Billion $) Country 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sweden 184 197 227.4 238.3 255.4 268.3 290.6 338.5 344.3 335.1 354.7 386.6 Figure (3.3): Inflation rate (consumer prices) (%) Country 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sweden 0.4 1.2 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.5 1.4 2.2 3.5 -0.3 1.4 3 Figure (3.4): Unemployment rate (%) Country 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sweden 6 4 4.9 5.6 5.8 5.6 6.1 6.2 8.3 8.3 7.5 Figure (3.5): Exports (Billion $) Country 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sweden 85.7 95.5 80.6 80.6 102.8 121.7 126.6 173.9 183.1 133.3 162.6 192.9 Figure (3.6): Imports (Billion $) Country 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sweden 67.9 80 68.6 68.6 83.27 97.97 104.4 151.8 165.3 120.5 158.6 179.6 Finally, an empirical analysis of Swedish companies shows that there are three clear challenges for Sweden: Sweden has not fully unleashed the job-creating power of the service society. New companies as well as small and medium-sized ones are demonstrating the weakest growth in Sweden, which means that the country continues to be dependent on growth in older, mature sectors. Despite the increase in new enterprise, Sweden needs greater incentives for individuals to choose to develop businesses and support themselves as entrepreneurs. 4 The Challenge of Aging Population Crisis and its Associated Social and Economical Impacts This section is divided into two parts. The first part discusses the population aging phenomena along with specification for its reasoning, measuring indices, benefits, and challenges. The second part provides the Sweden experience with aging, and the main challenges it faces. 4.1 Population Aging The UN report on World Population Aging: 1950 – 2050 defined the population aging as “The process by which older individuals become a proportionally larger share of the total population”. In other words, population aging is a shift in the age distribution towards older ages. There is no general agreement on the age when the person is identified as an elderly. Most of the developed countries consider the age of 65 years as a definition of an old person. In Africa, however, the identification of the elderly people varies according to the region or the country. The traditional African definitions of elderly individuals vary from those of age 50 to 65 years. Generally, the United Nations (UN) has set the age 60+ years as a cutoff to refer to the older people, while the World Health Organization (WHO) fixed the old age at 60 years for developing countries and the third world, and at 65 for developed countries. Despite this argument about age limit, it is usually related to the time when one retires (if he/she works) and begins to receive pension. This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order Developed countries or countries in transition were the first to experience the aging population phenomena. This phenomena will apparently reach soon and rapidly the newly industrialized (developing) countries as well. Table 4.1 presents the top 10 countries with the highest shares of 60+ population in 2011. As shown, they are all developed countries or countries in transition (e.g. Bulgaria and Croatia). Projections for 2050 show that some countries will probably enter the list (e.g. Cuba), while others will leave (e.g. Finland and Sweden). Table 4.2 presents the UN projection for countries with the most rapid aging. As it could be noticed, aging will be taking place primarily in relatively newly industrialized or developing countries. Hence, in the near future, population aging will be a world-wide phenomena. Table 4.1: Top 10 Countries for Aging Countries with the highest shares of 60+ populations in 2011 and 2050 (percentage), among countries with 2011 population of 1 million or more 2011 2050 Japan 31 Japan 42 Italy 27 Portugal 40 Germany 26 Bosnia and Herzegovina 40 Finland 25 Cuba 39 Sweden 25 Republic of Korea 39 Bulgaria 25 Italy 38 Greece 25 Spain 38 Portugal 24 Singapore 38 Belgium 24 Germany 38 Croatia 24 Switzerland 37 Source: United Nations Population Division (2011) Table 4.2: Top 10 Countries for Fastest Aging Countries with the largest percentage increase in 60+ share, among countries with 2011 population of 1 million or more Increase, 2011-2050 60+ Share, 2050 United Arab Emirates 35 36 Bahrain 29 32 Iran 26 33 Oman 25 29 Singapore 23 38 Republic of Korea 23 39 Viet Nam 22 31 Cuba 22 39 China 21 34 Trinidad and Tobago 21 32 Source: United Nations Population Division (2011) 4.1.1 Demographic Drivers of Population Aging Bloom et al. (2011) listed three main reasons that lead to an aging population. These are the increased longevity, in which people now around the world are having longer lives than before. The authors emphasized that the life expectancy has increased by two decades compared with that of 60 years ago. The second reason is the declining of fertility, in which families now tend to have less number of children, 50 percent less than that of 60 years ago. This directly leads to increase the elderly share in the population. The last reason is the aging of the baby boom generation. The baby boom generation refers to those who were born after the Second World War, between 1946 and 1964. At 1964, the individuals born after the war recorded 41 percent of the total population. At 2006 the oldest of baby boomers turned 60 years old, and by 2024 the youngest baby boomers will turn 60 years old. Through literature, there is an agreement on the main factors that lead to the population aging. For example, Kinsella and Phillips (2005) stated almost the same reasons of Bloom et al. (2011) for aging population, providing that the increase of the life expectancy at birth contributes in having increased longevity. The increase of the life expectancy at birth implies the decline of infant, childhood, and maternal mortality rates. Grundy (2006), addressing the experience of England and Wales with population aging, listed fertility and mortality trends. Also, the UN has reported that the reduction of fertility is the primary cause of population aging, along with the declining of mortality rates especially at older ages (United Nation, 2009). 4.1.2 Demographic Indices of Population Aging Population aging definition is mainly based on the share of people of retirement age (60+ or 65+) in the population. There are several demographic measures for population aging. A widely used measure is the old-age dependency ratio (ODR), also known as elderly dependence ratio (EDR), age-dependency ratio, or elderly dependency burden. This measure represents the ratio of the number of those of retirement ages to those of the working ages. The working age is often taken to be 15+ years old although the category 15-20 years old is not usually economically active, especially in developed countries. There are also two other common demographic indices for aging. These are the aging index, and statistical measures of location (e.g. mean, median, and mode). The aging index represents the number of people of age 65+ per 100 children under the age 15. The more the value of this indicator is, the more the share of the elderly in the population will be. As for the other indicator, the statistical measures of location, they are used to describe the distribution of the population age. Through literature, the median age is the frequently used descriptive measure. It is defined as the age by which exactly half of the population is younger (or older) than it. The higher the value of the median is, the more probably the country faces an ageing population. The mean age, although not popular, was referred to be better than the median by Gavrilov and Patrick (2003). This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order Gavrilov and Patrick (2003) emphasized that these indicators depend only on relating the number of people in large age categories. That is, they do not illustrate the age distribution within these groups. So, stating that the ratio of those of age 65+ is growing might be misleading if actually the growing group is those of age 80+, which referred to as the oldest olds. In fact, there is a great difference between the economic and health burdens of those of age 65 years and those of age 80 years. Hence, Gavrilov and Patrick (2003) suggested relying on the percentiles of the age distribution and/or analyzing the population pyramids when investigating the population aging. 4.1.3 Benefits and Challenges of Population Aging There is a great debate regarding whether to consider the aging population a crisis or not. As any phenomena, aging population has some benefits as well as some undesired consequences. However, the majority of the demographic studies consider it as a challenge that leads to damaging consequences. Healy (2004) was one of the very few authors that listed some benefits of the population aging, but her work was not world-wide, it was only based on the Australian situation. Below are the challenges of aging that the majority of authors had agreed on. Challenges of population aging Facing a decline in human capital and thus productivity and economic growth as a consequence of the fact that aging means the shrinking of the working-age share in the population. Increasing the burden on the pension and social insurance systems, which may lead to the bankruptcy of these systems as mentioned by Gavrilov and Patrick (2003). Increasing the medical costs and demands of health services, as a consequence of the increased longevity. This is because of the increase of the diseases and disabilities associated with aging. This in fact represents a heavy burden on the health sector. Difficulty in providing care within the family in general and for elderly in specific as the household size decreases and women, the tradition caregivers, increasingly enter the working field outside home. Decreasing of the stock of assets as the elderly increasingly rely on the savings to finance their spending. An asset meltdown is expected as well because elderly will tend to sell off their assets. 4.2 Sweden Experience with Population Aging As discussed in Section 2, Sweden has a quite small population of about 9.5 million people, among which elderly people (65+) represent 18 percent of it. This percent however is expected to increase to 30 percent by the year 2030. It is clear that Sweden is beginning to face the population aging challenges because of this increasing share of old people. From what presented in Section 2, it is obvious as well that the main drivers of aging in Sweden are the low mortality and fertility rates, the high levels of life expectancy for both sexes, and the large proportion of the baby boom generation in the population. Having both a low birth rate and low death rate suggests that Sweden will have a massive aged population. Policy makers are concerned about the challenges these shifts in the age distribution may impose on the economy in general and on the labor market, social insurance and pension systems, tax systems, and health care systems in specific.     Several studies had addressed the impact of this demographic shift on the Swedish economy. On one hand, a decline in the size of the labor force will result from the large portion of the baby-boomers reaching their retirement ages. Recall that Sweden almost depends on all its labor force as the unemployment rate is only 7.5 percent including about one quarter of those of age 15-20, as mentioned in Section 3. The predicament that Sweden faces is that the young people entering the labor market are less than the number of retirees because of its low birth rates. According to the recent statistics, the median age was found to be approximately 42 years old. Also, the old-age dependency ratio increased from 27 percent in 2008 to 29 percent in 2011. That is, for every 100 individuals of the working age, there exist 29 individuals of the retirement age. The ratio is expected to increase to 37 percent in 2030 and to 42 percent in 2050. This will have a dramatic effect on the overall production and hence on the economic growth. On the other hand, the increasing number of the elderly population increases from one side the demand on goods and services, more specifically the health care services, and from another side the burden on the public finances (e.g. old-age care and pensions). As a consequence, taxes are expected to be raised as a matter of compensation and support, as will be discussed later. This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order 4.2.1 Aging Impact on the Swedish Healthcare Systems According to the Swedish government, many of the elderly are in good health and have active lives. Sweden’s allocation from the GDP to the elderly care is almost five times the European Union (EU) average. Health care for the elderly is one of the important dimensions of the Swedish welfare policy. The Swedish healthcare system is mainly based on providing equal access to every legal resident in Sweden to the basic healthcare services. Through an aging population, Sweden faces two major problems in the health care sector. The first problem is represented in whether the government will be able to continue supporting its health welfare policy or not. The system is already a burden on the Swedish economy. With aging, Shing et al. (2012) expect that Sweden will experience hospitals privatization, increased costs, and growing waiting times. The second problem as addressed by Mats Thorslund, a Professor in Social Gerontology, at Karolinska Institute, a medical university in Stockholm, is the increase of the number of individuals with dementia, a mental disease associated with aged people, which needs to be dealt with as a first priority. Professor Mats in his researches highlights that, with aging, the government has to consider that the existing health facilities will reach a point where it can’t host all those who need care. He also suggests hiring more people in the health care field, especially for the home caring, with adequate physical strength, and also stresses on providing them with suitable salary. 4.2.2 Aging Impact on the Swedish Public Finance Systems The Sweden social welfare policy is based on the concept that all individuals have the right to have public services at all their stages of life. The Swedish welfare policy provides an old age pension, in which anyone reaches the age of 65 years gets a certain amount of a state allowance, regardless his/her income. Sweden has been a world leader in providing economic security for its elderly. However, if any worker of age 60-64 years needed to retire, i.e. before usual retirement age, his/her pension benefit is reduced by 6 percent for the rest of the individual’s life. With aging, expectations are that Sweden will not be able to keep providing such welfare, especially with the shrinking working force. Sweden government covers a lot of the elderly spending either through providing public goods (e.g. medical services and old-age care) or through transfer payments (e.g. pensions). As the elderly increases, the government will require to either raise the taxes to support that enormous dependency load or to lessen the per capita spending. Brunner (2007) recommended against the increase of the taxes, and added that such policy will have a damageable effect on the economy. One suggested scenario from Brunner (2007) assumes that raising the taxes will lead at the end to the need to raise it again. From all what is presented above, it is clear that Sweden is facing burdensome demographic changes. According to demographic researchers and theorists, Sweden will no longer be able to provide its citizens with the model of the welfare state. The question now is how did Sweden planned to cope with all these challenges? 5. Future Solutions for Aging Population Crisis In this section, the solutions proposed to solve the aging crisis in Sweden and the criticism associated with each solution is reviewed. The presented criticism is based on the research results of Andersson and Scott (2005), Roessger (2010), and Kerr and Kerr (2011). The three proposed solutions are encouragement of late retirement to keep a large working community, encouragement of immigration of working age people and encouragement Larger Families. It should be mentioned that these solutions were proposed for other European countries with a similar demographic structure as Sweden like Switzerland and Germany. 5.1 Encouragement of Late Retirement to Keep a Large Working Community The retirement age in Sweden is 65 however a Sweden citizen have the full right to retire as early as 61 and as late as 67. If we looked at the life expectancy at birth in Sweden, according to 2012 estimates, it is approximately 81 years for total population such that males are nearly 79 years and females are 84 years. This means that on average a citizen depend on his retirement pension for at least 10 years. Increasing the retirement age will cause the burden of old population to decrease. On way could be increasing the women retirement age so as to make up for their parental leave during their working age as well as for living longer. This essay is an example of a student’s work Disclaimer This essay has been submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. Essay Writing Service Dissertation Writing Service Who wrote this essay Place an Order The disadvantage of such a policy could be briefed in “How many years the average person can bear working”. On looking at this solution we need to keep the balance between having a large working community and having an efficient working community. Also, applying such solution need the intervention of the federal Health organization to decide on it. If such a solution cannot be applied, then applying a more reliable efficient pension system that meet up with the crisis it is facing is considered the immediate short run solution. One of the suggestions pointed out to making the pension system related to the dependency ratio of the community along with the income level of the citizen. However, this is considered to be a little bit unfair. As any person while working is putting in his/ her consideration that he is making up for his retirement, thus he needs to receive his full rights that he have worked hard and struggled to have. The obstacles facing the mentioned solution has directed researchers to find more better solutions such as encouraging immigration and increasing the fertility rate which shall lead to having larger working community and by default larger tax base to bear the burden of the non working population. 5.2 Encouragement of Immigration of Working Age People As it took an advantage of the bad economic status of most of the European countries, after the world wars, to establish a well based economy, Sweden can use the high unemployment around the world to solve its problem, through hiring foreigner men and women from both developed and undeveloped countries to increase the country tax base. This can be done through opening the immigration doors to women and men at their working age, which means that Sweden should work on easing its immigration policy and restrictions. However, there are great disadvantages of such solution: Sweden is already a country for immigration for a half of a century now. Ethnicity wise, easing immigration restrictions more can on the long run affect the population structure. This can make the country face some identity problems unless it tried to adopt a melting plot concept with immigrants as was done in the United States. The main aim for having in-immigration is for the labor market, yet the labor market has its own need for the skills of workers. In developing countries, the one with higher unemployment and higher human resources, these skills are lacked due to bad educational and work system in such countries. Thus, the newly arriving working population in Sweden will be facing severe difficulties in establishing them-selves in the labor market due to the mismatch between immigrants’ human capital and the needs of employers. Or it can only depend on labor force of immigrants from developed countries; however, such a solution is a little bit practically unrealistic. As it means that the degree of easing the immigration restriction shall vary from one country to another or at least from one category to another, this could be considered as a form of discrimination. Most of the time ,Immigrants, especially women, in their working age are at their fertility age as well, which cause the abuse of the country’s generous parental leave system. Especially for skilled workers who are more likely to have higher income and consequently a higher parental benefits. This leads to an extra problem as the country now has to bear people out of the working age with their pensions and those who are considered a solution for their childbearing and parenthood. Yet, Immigration is considered as a short term solution. It is not safe for any country to economically depend on non-citizen workers. So we need to look for a long run solution for that crisis. 5.3 Encouragement Larger Families Unlike immigration which is considered a quick solution, encouraging having large families is considered a long run solution. Sweden is already facing an aging population crisis since 2006. One of the methods of encouraging larger families is offering a cash bonus to the families with 2, 3 or 4 kids or giving them some extra facilities as mortgage and bank loans. Also, providing discounted educational fees for families with more than two children can be considered a motive. Most of the motives and incentive methods are considered economical. Banks can provide different higher savings interest for families with larger number of kids. Applying a system of the savings interest rate that is directly proportional to the number of kids a family can have represents a great motive. This solution is faced by the obstacle of low fertility rate in Sweden which will yield the impact to be after at least twenty five years. One way to overcome such obstacle is through having federal programs for adopting orphan children from foreigner countries. The three above solutions despite their hinders, represent an effective way to overcome the impact of aging population if and only if they were applied efficiently and through further well based studies in order to overcome their disadvantages .